Adjusting for Context and Arbitration

One of the keys to solving the value puzzle in sports is separating what the player controls and what he doesn’t. Sounds simple, but it’s not.

In baseball arbitration, context can be a huge factor. In extreme examples – such as pitcher who plays home games in Coors Field – the arbitration process makes the proper adjustments to salaries. But there are many others where it doesn’t. For example, factors like run support, defensive play, and bullpen performance all have a massive impact on starting pitcher statistics.

Relievers also face challenges when it comes to context. Holds and saves greatly influence arbitration salaries, and they get impacted by the man calling the shots. Managers vary tremendously in how they handle relievers, and this can be good or bad for pitching stats. Here are just a few examples:

Pitching Changes: Some managers change pitchers far more often than others. Giants Manager Bruce Bochy used 524 relievers in 2013 versus 440 for Washington’s Davey Johnson. The frequency of Bochy’s changes created more opportunities for holds. Giants relievers had 46 holds of less than one inning. The Nationals had just 15.

Free Passes: Seattle’s Eric Wedge ordered 48 intentional walks last season, compared to 10 by John Farrell and the Red Sox. This hits the statistics of relievers especially hard, since they pitch far fewer inning than starters. Intentional walks cause stats like walks per nine innings and WHIP to rise, even though the pitcher did nothing to cause it. Because intentional walks are usually poor strategic moves, they can also increase a reliever’s ERA.

Wearing Them Down: Overuse can also make relief pitchers less effective. The Red Sox and Indians had similar ERA figures – both for their starting rotation and bullpen – yet Terry Francona worked his pen much harder. Cleveland relievers pitched on consecutive days 122 times. Farrell, on the other hand, used Red Sox pitchers only 71 times without a day of rest.

Every player’s situation is different. And The Sports Resource identifies how context impacts all the stats that matter in arbitration.

Cox and Torre Have Lived Parallel Lives

Along the lines of the Abraham Lincoln and John F. Kennedy list of bizarre coincidences, Joe Torre and Bobby Cox have plenty of their own. This has nothing to do with sports analytics, but had to post it anyway:

Joe Torre has three letters in his first name and five in his second name.
Bobby Cox has five letters in his first name and three in his second name.

Torre played for the Braves and managed the Yankees.
Cox played for the Yankees and manages the Braves.

Torre originally signed with the Braves and manages the Dodgers.
Cox originally signed with the Dodgers and manages the Braves.

Both Cox and Torre played third base in the Major Leagues.

Both played for teams in New York City: Torre with the Mets, Cox with the Yankees.

Both managers had their first full season in 1978.
Torre finished last in the NL East.
Cox finished last in the NL West.

Both managers had their second full season in 1979.
Torre finished last in the NL East.
Cox finished last in the NL West.

Torre managed in New York (with the Mets), left to manage other clubs, and returned to New York (with the Yankees).
Cox managed in Atlanta, left to manage another club, and returned to Atlanta.

Torre replaced Cox as Braves manager before the 1982 season.

Both skippers left managing in the mid-1980s to pursue other opportunities: Torre as a broadcaster and Cox as a GM.

Torre had two managerial stints in New York. He struggled in the first one and became one of the all-time greatest managers in the second.
Cox had two managerial stints in Atlanta. He struggled in the first one and became one of the all-time greatest managers in the second.

Both managers have made 15 postseason appearances, more than any other manager in Major League history.

Both managers have had streaks of 14 consecutive playoff appearances, more than any other manager in Major League history.