The Common Factor

Besides playing for the Oklahoma City Thunder, Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden don’t seem to have much in common. And that was the case when the Sonics/Thunder selected them in three consecutive drafts, except for one key factor.

All three players were exceptionally young for their class. At 18.74 years old on draft night, Durant was the youngest freshmen (and player) taken in the past five drafts combined. One year later, they landed the youngest sophomore from these five draft classes. Westbrook, at 19.62 years old, was actually younger than many freshmen in the 2008 draft. Then they took Harden in 2009. Only one other sophomore besides Westbrook was younger than Harden at 19.83.

As a result, the Thunder nabbed three players with far more college playing experience than prospects their same age. The Sports Resource Newsletter covered this topic last year. Westbrook, for example, had played 75 games for UCLA. Most of the draft selections close to his age had fewer than half that many.

Obviously, it wasn’t just about their age relative to their class. Durant and Harden also put up outstanding statistics, but so had many others in their draft class. Their numbers were made far more impressive by the fact that they were over one year younger (in some cases) than players that shared the same college class.

Maybe other teams valued this common factor, but went another direction on draft night. Perhaps it’s just a coincidence that Oklahoma City exploited this edge three straight years. Whatever happened, the Thunder may soon start the next NBA dynasty because of those selections.

One Simple Test for Predicting NBA Success

If a college player can score at a high rate before turning 20 years old, they have a great chance for NBA success.

This quick test was explained a few years ago in The Sports Resource Newsletter. That year, the 2008 NBA Draft had seven players selected who had averaged 20 points per 40 minutes in their final college season before turning 20 years old. Among that group, Derrick Rose, Kevin Love, Michael Beasley and Eric Gordon have emerged as strong NBA players. J.J. Hickson appears headed for a solid career. Jerryd Bayless and Kosta Koufos still have a ways to go.

The next two drafts produced just two “20 under 20” players apiece. All seem destined for excellent careers. The 2009 draft included Tyreke Evans and James Harden, while 2010 had DeMarcus Cousins and Al-Farouq Aminu.

This year’s draft features just three members of the 20 under 20 club. Kyrie Irving and Alec Burks have gotten their share of attention, but a third player isn’t projected to go until the 20’s in most mock drafts. Tennessee’s Tobias Harris actually did the other prospects one better – he averaged 20 points per 40 minutes before turning 19 years old! This hasn’t been done by a drafted player in his final college season since Kevin Durant in 2007.

Burks turned in his own impressive feat by going 20 under 20 in both of his college seasons. He joined Derrick Williams, Jordan Hamilton, Kenneth Faried and Chris Wright as players who did this in seasons other than their final college campaign.

Summary of the MIT Sports Analytics Conference

Here’s a wrap-up of the MIT Sports Analytics Conference held earlier this month, with the focus on items of interest to sports agents.

This year’s conference drew 1,500 people to the Boston Convention and Exhibition Center. Representatives from 53 different professional teams attended, according to the organizers. Now in its fifth year, the event has evolved into as much a business conference as an analytics one, with topics about sponsorships and enhancing the game day experience.

Rockets GM Daryl Morey, one of the event’s organizers, pointed out that basketball is a sport that punishes mistakes during the opening panel on developing the modern athlete. He explained how people focus on all the dunks, but mistakes are costly and need to be minimized for success. While players that shoot high percentages and avoid turnovers get little media attention, teams clearly build such contributions into their statistical models and projections.

In the same panel, Morey said that during the NBA Draft process they’re often looking for flaws more than attributes. They identify what problems a player has that they think they can improve upon. This shows why it may be a good idea to address a player’s shortcomings in draft packages and then demonstrate how they will overcome them.

The Baseball Analytics panel also had some interesting exchanges. Tom Tippett, director of baseball information services for the Red Sox, talked about the Carl Crawford contract. Although he lacked the power of most well-paid outfielders, Tippett said that between triples and home runs, Crawford clears the bases about 30 times per year. Tippett said the team also researched how Fenway Park’s dimensions would impact Crawford’s defensive performance.

Both Major League Baseball and the NBA are moving toward having a complete digital record of each game. This creates tremendous opportunities for sports agents and their staffs to analyze and present this data on behalf of their clients.

Keeping it Simple

I have been reading “The House Advantage” by Jeff Ma. The book explains the importance of incorporating data into the decision process. Ma uses examples from his background in sports and as a member of the MIT blackjack team; he was the central character in the best-selling book “Bringing Down the House”.

In one chapter, Ma writes about the approach he takes when consulting with businesses, whether sports-related or not. He summarizes it without using any complex statistical terms, but as taking information from the past to make decisions about the future. Whether in sports or business, that process creates an edge.

This applies to most sports decisions, whether for free agency or the draft. What trends are in a player’s past that bode well for their future? That track record may be long and consistent with plenty of data, as with Albert Pujols or Tim Duncan. Or it could be brief, such as the case of a young lefty relief specialist or a college freshman entering the NBA Draft. Generally speaking, the more the data, the easier it is to project performance going forward.

The quality of the data is also important. When projecting Ubaldo Jimenez’s performance for the season’s final two months, his impressive won-lost record through July is not all that helpful. His ERA is more valuable, but still not the best predictor. The best projections come from examining Jimenez’s walks and home runs allowed, the percentage of batters he has struck out, and factors like left on base percentage and batting average on balls in play. Performance in previous seasons matters too, as that is all part of his track record.