What Happens Next?

The 2014 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference is over, and it’s time to get down to work. So what comes next? While this post is more for people looking to break in or break out in sports, it could prompt ideas for insiders as well.

The best way to reach your dreams and goals is to help somebody else reach theirs. So here’s how to take concepts from the conference and use them to build value for others.

Choose. Sports analytics can do much more than people realize, not less. There are many organizations, companies, and individuals in the sports industry who can gain a competitive advantage with quantitative information. Focus on areas where you can show indisputable proof of its value.  They may not be at the highest level of sports, but they certainly exist.

Think beyond the playing surface. The best opportunities may lie in sports business, where innovation can move as slowly as on the field. Identify things that don’t make sense. For example, why do teams spend millions on a gigantic new video board, and then fill it with per game stats, batting averages, and videos of two hands clapping together?

Create. One way to mine innovative – and valuable – research is to merge two or more different types of data. Combining park effect statistics and weather data is one example, and this impressive study is another.

Compel. Some sports insiders will ignore hard data and evidence no matter what. Will anybody ever convince Jim Boeheim to play his bench more? Fortunately, there are college teams led by coaches that think like Brad Stevens, who are more likely to consider new concepts and welcome analysis from outside sources. The level of acceptance will vary widely at all levels, so find the best targets and demonstrate how analytics will make an impact, either in the win column or bottom line.

Sports may take time to embrace change. But once a team or organization succeeds with a fresh approach, others rush to follow.

Four Ways to Build Value for Arbitration

The arbitration season is a crazy time of year for baseball agents and The Sports Resource. So before it gets into full swing, here are strategies for making your briefs a winner.

Building a brief starts with telling a compelling story in the player profile section. That makes matching the player against key comparables easier and more convincing.

The approaches below work for both the player profile and comparables sections, and will make powerful points that complement a brief's core elements. 

History, All-time Greats, and Rarities. While their achievements may not find their way onto SportsCenter, players record historic achievements throughout the regular season. For example, Antonio Bastardo’s 14.0 strikeouts per nine innings rate this season has been matched by just two lefthanders in Major League history: Billy Wagner and Aroldis Chapman. We’re not saying Bastardo is as good as Wagner (obviously), but linking his name to an all-time great is huge. And such feats carry value even when they don’t involve common statistics. 

Marginal Value adds Major Value. Players on teams that narrowly reach the postseason – such as the Orioles and Cardinals this year – help their teams generate $25-to-$50 million of additional revenue. That’s according to research by Vince Gennaro, a consultant for Major League teams and author of the book “Diamond Dollars”. Reaching the playoffs also impacts club revenues for up to five seasons. Demonstrate how your player made that two or three-game difference for his club (and his key comparables didn’t), and you score a huge plus. 

Ballpark Figures. Park factors can be a tremendous weapon in arbitration. Hitters in Safeco Field, or any of the five California stadiums, are ideal for park adjustments. The same goes for pitchers in Coors Field, U.S. Cellular Field and Fenway Park. Our last newsletter addressed this topic for free agency. The concept works differently in arbitration – because the criteria does not allow for projections – but it’s a great tactic for evaluating past performance. 

Advanced Metrics. Clubs have used win expectancies and leverage index against relievers in recent hearings. So why not do the same? Even if they don’t help your case, it pays to prepare information for rebuttal. WAR is a powerful tool as well, but works better at some positions than others. Although their explanations consume some presentation time, advanced metrics complement core numbers extremely well.

Who is Today’s Jose Cruz?

I drove past the Astrodome last week, seeing the old stadium for the first time. Now dwarfed by the adjacent Reliant Stadium, it brought back memories of 1-0 victories thrown by great Houston pitchers like Nolan Ryan and J.R. Richard.

Through most of its history, the Astrodome was an awful place to hit a baseball. Jose Cruz had the misfortune to play there in the 1970s and 80s. Had Cruz played in Fenway Park or Wrigley Field back then, he may be remembered as one of his era’s greatest hitters.

Cruz hit 59 career home runs in his home parks and 106 in road games. Although he started with Cardinals and ended up with the Yankees, Cruz had 83 percent of his career plate appearances for the Astros.

During his peak from 1976 to 1986 – when he played exclusively for the Astros – Cruz had a 128 OPS+ according to BaseballReference.com. Since this metric adjusts for both the league average and a player’s ballpark, the Astrodome’s negative impact gets stripped away. Cruz ranked 24th in OPS+ among players with 2500 plate appearances from 1976-86, finishing in a group of more heralded players like Dale Murphy (129 OPS+), Cal Ripken Jr. (129), Kirk Gibson (128), and Dave Parker (128).

In that same timeframe, Cruz hit 100 homers and stole 250 bases. Only Andre Dawson, Rickey Henderson, and Davey Lopes joined him at those levels. Cruz reached base 2412 times, more than all but five other Major Leaguers from 1976-86.

While there are no stadiums like the Astrodome today, Safeco Field and PETCO Park have a comparable impact on offense. Although we now have tools that few knew about during Cruz’s playing days to adjust for run context, they still get limited attention.

Ballparks have a huge impact on statistics, yet many fail to take this into account in solving the value puzzle. Examining park effects is vital for not only showing a player’s true performance level, but where his career is headed.

The Power of Park Effects

Park effects have a huge impact on baseball statistics. Yet this area is confusing and often misunderstood. Here are some key points on park effects that agents may find useful for free agency and arbitration.

Beware of Reputations: Citizens Bank Park is thought to be a hitter’s paradise. Yet the numbers don’t back that up. According to the Bill James Handbook, the Phillies home ballpark increased home runs by just 1 percent last year. The impact was far greater from 2007 through 2009 when the park upped homer frequency by 14 percent. But even in this time frame, run production only increased by 3 percent. Now here’s the real shocker: After all the talk about the early season home run barrage in the new Yankee Stadium, the park decreased run production by 4 percent in 2009.

Avoid “One Size Fits All Park Factors”. Ballparks affect different players in different ways. Minute Maid Park is a good park for right-handed home run hitters, but not for left-hand hitters with power. Chase Field, which greatly increases doubles and triples, makes a great fit for gap hitters with speed.

Park Factors Change from Year to Year. Weather patterns and other factors influence park effects. Turner Field increased run scoring by 6 percent in 2008. Last season, when Atlanta had a cooler than usual summer, it decreased scoring by 10 percent.

Don’t Buy the Road Stats Argument. In some cases, teams may point out that a player had comparable numbers in both home and away games to show that his home park did not hurt his statistics. But most players have better numbers at home than on the road, probably due to park familiarity and the negative effect of travel on away stats. Ballparks impact statistics whether or not a player’s home and road numbers look similar.