The Real Reason Spurs Players Are Underrated

In the next two weeks, we’re going to hear all the explanations for why the Spurs get so little publicity. The most popular reasons – they’re businesslike, they feature an unselfish balanced attack, and they play in a small market – are somewhat accurate. However, the main reason Spurs players get so little publicity is simple – they don’t play a lot.

San Antonio did not have a single player average 30 minutes per game during the regular season. Every other NBA team had at least two, and most clubs had three or four. What does this have to do with publicity? Most of the media still uses meaningless per game stats for evaluation, and it is hard to shine in these categories while getting so few minutes per game.

Only one Spurs player, Tony Parker, ranked among the league’s top 50 in points per game (minimum: 1,000 minutes played), and he placed 45^th. Points per 40 minutes, which evaluates scoring far better, tells a completely different story. San Antonio placed four players in the top 50 in points per 40 minutes – Parker, Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Patty Mills) – which tied the Suns for most in the league.

The Spurs had five players among the top 50 in John Hollinger’s PER (Player Efficiency Rating), with Kawhi Leonard joining the aforementioned group. That led all NBA teams. Their NBA Finals opponent is the only other team with four. PER also does not get impacted by playing time.

Parker ranked just 15th among point guards with 16.7 points per game. However, he placed seventh with 22.7 points per 40 minutes. He doesn’t play nearly as much as other elite point guards, and that’s the main reason he gets less attention.

Given the rapid growth of the San Antonio market – combined with the soaring population of Austin just an hour and a half to the north – it’s not exactly remote. The Spurs also do not possess a balanced attack. Four San Antonio players attempted 15 or more field goals per 40 minutes. Only the Pistons (five) had more. The Spurs scoring appears balanced because Gregg Popovich distributes playing time so evenly, but Parker, Duncan and Ginobili all have high usage rates.

Like so many topics in sports that get overanalyzed, the truth is in the numbers.

 

The Problem with Per Game Statistics

With so many better metrics available, it’s hard to believe the mainstream sports media still uses per game statistics to evaluate player performance.

ESPN Radio’s Colin Cowherd recently compared Derrick Rose to Allen Iverson. The comparison makes sense on some levels. Both players are shoot first, pass second point guards. Both are incredibly quick and great finishers. Cowherd’s mistake was using per game statistics, which made the players appear closer in performance than they really are.

Cowherd started by saying Iverson had the edge in points per game over Rose in their third NBA seasons: 26.8 to 25.0. This brings up the biggest reason per game numbers fall short: starters vary tremendously in how many minutes they see per game. Iverson played 41.5 minutes per game versus 37.4 for Rose. Using points per 40 minutes to even the playing field, Rose (26.7) has actually scored more than Iverson (25.8).

Rose had a huge edge in assists per game (7.9) over Iverson (4.6) in their third seasons. That difference increases with the more revealing assists per 40 minutes figures: 8.4 to 4.5. Iverson did spend extensive time at shooting guard that year while Eric Snow played point for the Sixers, which impacted his assist numbers. Still, Iverson never came close to matching Rose’s assists per 40 minutes figure in any career season. Rose had also shot for the higher percentage from both two-point (47.2 to 44.0) and three-point range (33.2 to 29.1) in season number three.

Rose had the advantage in John Hollinger’s PER as well, 23.4 to 22.2 over Iverson. Both players have high usage rates – which estimates the number of their team’s plays they use while on the court – of nearly 33 percent. So while they both use a high percentage of their team’s possessions, Rose produces more in those opportunities.

Iverson did have a big edge in steals per 40 minutes in his third season. And while he reached the foul line more often than Rose, they made nearly the same number of free throws per minute due to Rose’s far superior free throw percentage.

Most importantly, Rose is younger than Iverson was in his third season by one year and four months. It makes more sense to compare Rose’s third season to Iverson’s second campaign, which would cause the gap between the players to widen even further. Finally, Rose stands three inches taller than Iverson and weighs 25 pounds more.

While they have some similarities, Rose holds a decisive edge over Iverson at the same stage of their careers. That becomes clear when taking a look beyond their per game statistics.

Iverson was a great player. But in both performance and from a branding perspective, Rose is on track to soar much higher than Iverson ever did.

Adjusted Double-Doubles

No matter how well a player performs, playing time has a huge impact on per game statistics. Per game metrics remain the favorite of the mainstream sports media, even though playing time varies widely among those considered “regulars.”

A total of 15 NBA players averaged a double-double in 2009-10. The list includes several current and former All-Stars: Tim Duncan, Carlos Boozer, Chris Bosh, Dwight Howard, Pau Gasol, Steve Nash, Deron Williams, Chris Paul, Andrew Bogut, David Lee, Zach Randolph, Gerald Wallace, Troy Murphy, Kevin Love, and Joakim Noah.

Love’s achievement was most impressive considering he only played 28.6 minutes per game. The other 14 averaged 35.1 minutes per contest. Love became just the second active player to average a double-double in less than 30 minutes per game. Lee, the only other, matched his feat in 2006-07. Among the 31 total players to do this in NBA history, Love was the youngest ever.

It’s nearly impossible to average a double-double in less than regular action. Several more players could have reached this level had they seen as much playing time as the first group. So here is a group of additional players that projected as double-double guys based on points, rebounds, and assists per 35 minutes. This adjustment puts them on equal ground with the earlier group, which saw that much game action on average.

Lamar Odom
Brendan Haywood
Emeka Okafor
Udonis Haslem
Samuel Dalembert
Drew Gooden
Shaquille O'Neal
DeJuan Blair
Serge Ibaka
Kris Humphries
Nazr Mohammed
DeAndre Jordan
Louis Amundson

Expect the younger players on this list – Serge Ibaka, DeAndre Jordan, and DeJuan Blair – to emerge as they receive more burn in the upcoming seasons. All they need is additional PT to post big per game numbers.