Do-It-Yourself Three-Point Shooters

With five seconds left on the shot clock and all their teammates covered, guards have to create. Some perform much better at it than others.

Creating and then converting a three-pointer is basketball’s version of a grand slam. A 24-second violation nets nothing – and a wild shot attempt isn’t much better. So it’s a three-point swing if a player can nail a three off the dribble. Since few players shoot high percentages in these situations, the players who excel have tremendous value.

After evaluating all three-point shooters for volume, accuracy and the ability to create their shot without an assist, Spurs guard Gary Neal stood out. He hit 41.9 percent overall from three-point range last season, even though only 54.2 percent of his made threes were assisted. On average, 84.2 of NBA three-pointers were assisted in 2011-12.

Most top three-point marksmen have a very high percentage of their threes assisted. That’s no problem of course, it’s their job to spot up and drain threes. But it makes players who can convert threes off the dribble even more valuable, especially for teams that don’t get many open three-point looks from their set offense.

In addition to Neal, other players who shine in this area include Kyrie Irving, Kyle Lowry, Jose Juan Barea and Lou Williams. 

Time to Move On

If a point guard had these averages after his name (3.6 PPG, 1.9 APG), most people wouldn’t think much of him. But if you change them to 21.3 and 11.3, that’s a different story. These stats are actually for the same player during the same timeframe. They show Jeremy Lin’s production in his first nine games this season before he saw regular action and exploded on the scene. The second set of numbers reveal Lin’s numbers per 36 minutes of game action. He began his strong performance before Linsanity, although few noticed.

Once some ideas become entrenched in sports, it’s difficult to change. I have no idea why basketball started using per game statistics, but it’s time to stop. NBA players – even those that we call regulars – vary widely in minutes played per game. We already saw how useless they are for bench players. Per game stats cause misconceptions about performance, and hamper the ability to identify breakout players. We should evaluate players per minute or, better yet, per possession. But the latter concept is too great a leap for the mainstream.

In the meantime, here’s an alternative to points per game. True Scoring Rate (TSR) is simply a player’s points scored per 36 minutes. Why 36 minutes? That’s the approximate average for a top NBA starter. This way we find out who scores at the greatest rate, something points per game has never done.

Points per game shortchanges players like Kyrie Irving, who had played just 31 minutes per game (through February 23). Irving ranked 23rd in points per game (18.1), but his 21.1 TSR placed 15th, ahead of point guards Tony Parker (20.3) and Chris Paul (19.1). Both surpassed him in points per game, largely because they saw more minutes.

True Scoring Rate is not really new, just a way of simplifying per minute rates. It’s easy to understand and calculate. Most importantly, it adjusts for the large discrepancies in playing time.

The next Jeremy Lin might be sitting on an NBA bench right now, and TSR can help find him.

One Simple Test for Predicting NBA Success

If a college player can score at a high rate before turning 20 years old, they have a great chance for NBA success.

This quick test was explained a few years ago in The Sports Resource Newsletter. That year, the 2008 NBA Draft had seven players selected who had averaged 20 points per 40 minutes in their final college season before turning 20 years old. Among that group, Derrick Rose, Kevin Love, Michael Beasley and Eric Gordon have emerged as strong NBA players. J.J. Hickson appears headed for a solid career. Jerryd Bayless and Kosta Koufos still have a ways to go.

The next two drafts produced just two “20 under 20” players apiece. All seem destined for excellent careers. The 2009 draft included Tyreke Evans and James Harden, while 2010 had DeMarcus Cousins and Al-Farouq Aminu.

This year’s draft features just three members of the 20 under 20 club. Kyrie Irving and Alec Burks have gotten their share of attention, but a third player isn’t projected to go until the 20’s in most mock drafts. Tennessee’s Tobias Harris actually did the other prospects one better – he averaged 20 points per 40 minutes before turning 19 years old! This hasn’t been done by a drafted player in his final college season since Kevin Durant in 2007.

Burks turned in his own impressive feat by going 20 under 20 in both of his college seasons. He joined Derrick Williams, Jordan Hamilton, Kenneth Faried and Chris Wright as players who did this in seasons other than their final college campaign.