The Real Reason Spurs Players Are Underrated

In the next two weeks, we’re going to hear all the explanations for why the Spurs get so little publicity. The most popular reasons – they’re businesslike, they feature an unselfish balanced attack, and they play in a small market – are somewhat accurate. However, the main reason Spurs players get so little publicity is simple – they don’t play a lot.

San Antonio did not have a single player average 30 minutes per game during the regular season. Every other NBA team had at least two, and most clubs had three or four. What does this have to do with publicity? Most of the media still uses meaningless per game stats for evaluation, and it is hard to shine in these categories while getting so few minutes per game.

Only one Spurs player, Tony Parker, ranked among the league’s top 50 in points per game (minimum: 1,000 minutes played), and he placed 45^th. Points per 40 minutes, which evaluates scoring far better, tells a completely different story. San Antonio placed four players in the top 50 in points per 40 minutes – Parker, Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Patty Mills) – which tied the Suns for most in the league.

The Spurs had five players among the top 50 in John Hollinger’s PER (Player Efficiency Rating), with Kawhi Leonard joining the aforementioned group. That led all NBA teams. Their NBA Finals opponent is the only other team with four. PER also does not get impacted by playing time.

Parker ranked just 15th among point guards with 16.7 points per game. However, he placed seventh with 22.7 points per 40 minutes. He doesn’t play nearly as much as other elite point guards, and that’s the main reason he gets less attention.

Given the rapid growth of the San Antonio market – combined with the soaring population of Austin just an hour and a half to the north – it’s not exactly remote. The Spurs also do not possess a balanced attack. Four San Antonio players attempted 15 or more field goals per 40 minutes. Only the Pistons (five) had more. The Spurs scoring appears balanced because Gregg Popovich distributes playing time so evenly, but Parker, Duncan and Ginobili all have high usage rates.

Like so many topics in sports that get overanalyzed, the truth is in the numbers.

 

Stepping Up

Who increased their scoring rate more than anybody else during the NBA Playoffs? Was it NBA Finals MVP LeBron James, the hot-shooting Danny Green, or an emerging star like Paul George? Actually, none of them came close. The correct answer is a backup point guard for a club that didn’t survive the first round.

Andre Miller upped his points per 40 minutes rate from 14.6 during the regular season to 21.8 in the playoffs. His 7.2 points increase led all players who saw at least 1000 regular season and 100 postseason minutes.

Since much of the media focuses on misleading per game stats, vital details like this get missed. While points per game is never a good metric, it’s even less effective during the playoffs when rotations shorten. Regulars see more minutes per game which can cause per game stats to increase even when per minute production dips. Our simple adjustment eliminates this bias. The top 10 appears below. Among superstar players, Chris Paul posted the largest increase.

		PS P/40	RS P/40	Change
1	Andre Miller	21.8	14.6	+7.2
2	Gerald Green	21.0	15.6	+5.4
3	Carl Landry	23.1	18.6	+4.5
4	Chris Paul	24.5	20.3	+4.1
5	Udonis Haslem	12.3	8.2	+4.1
6	Draymond Green	12.6	8.6	+4.0
7	Gerald Wallace	13.8	10.2	+3.6
8	Francisco Garcia	15.6	12.5	+3.1
9	Lamar Odom	11.2	8.2	+3.0
10	Andre Iguodala	17.8	14.9	+2.8

One more key point: scoring drops during the playoffs because teams play at a slower pace. Among the 105 players who met the criteria, only 38 (36.2 percent) scored more points per 40 minutes in the playoffs. This makes the performances of Miller and Paul even more impressive. 

A Breakthrough for Role Players

For several years, The Sports Resource has recommended companies use non-superstar players for endorsements. Role players who excel in specific ways or possess unique traits can build brands at a much lower cost than superstars.

The news that Hawks guard Dahntay Jones signed a partnership deal last week demonstrates that companies are coming around to this concept. The 6-6 Jones sees just 12.4 minutes per game, but plays sensational defense.

With this approach in mind four years ago, we created a sample on Marreese Speights. What makes this a winning strategy for brands? 

1)      Many role players, such as Jones, have large audiences on social media. He had over 21,500 Twitter followers. This creates opportunities for brands to interact with thousands of fans through the player’s voice. 

2)      Every NBA player excels in at least one vital area, or else he wouldn’t be on a roster. For a defender like Jones, brands could use insightful defensive metrics to activate the sponsorship. 

3)      The cost to sign role players to deals is far less than what it takes to land a superstar.

We also believe companies should identify and sign promising young players for endorsements before they break out – a tactic where analytics provides a huge edge and can save millions of dollars.

Speights, now just 25, possessed considerable upside four years ago. And while he’s yet to see big-time minutes, he remains a very productive role player. Speights puts up 20 points and 10 rebounds per 40 minutes. Only 10 other players currently match that achievement, including stars like Blake Griffin and Tim Duncan.

Should this trend gain traction, players who build their brand on social media will get endorsement opportunities that only the superstars previously enjoyed. As for brands, we’ve already detailed why it pays to activate sponsorships with statistics. And that approach works great for all types of players.