A Closer Look at Goal Scorers

Sports analytics hasn’t made nearly the same impact on the NHL that it has in the NBA or MLB, but that is changing.

The MIT Sports Analytics Conference held this past March, included a Hockey Analytics Panel. Don Fishman, the assistant general manager and director of legal affairs for the Capitals, had one of the more interesting comments.

“I think even strength stats and power play stats need to be drilled down more in terms of the value of a forward,” said Fishman. “You might have a fantastic forward that the coach is playing zero minutes on the power play. And you might think he’s having a down year. But when you filter out for even strength or shorthanded, he’s actually having a wonderful year. So statistics can lie, if you’re relying on power play stats.”

The overall goal scoring leaders get impacted by both the situations in which they play and how much they play. But a couple adjustments can identify the league’s best scorers.

We ran the numbers for all skaters who saw at least 750 minutes of even strength ice time in the 2010-11 regular season (430 players total). Here is the top 10 in even strength goals per 60 minutes.

Only four of these players also finished in the top 10 for total goals scored: Corey Perry, Jeff Carter, Michael Grabner and Danny Briere. Grabner was most impressive, making the overall list despite only spending 70 minutes all season on the power play. He topped the table above with 1.62 even strength goals per 60 minutes.

Alexandre Burrows also saw limited action on power plays - which hurt his overall statistics – but shined by scoring 1.45 goals per 60 minutes in even strength situations.

Let the Numbers Tell the Story

Speaking at the MIT Sports Analytics Conference, Microsoft’s Bruno Aziza explained how “Analytics tell a great story.”

Unfortunately, analytics rarely get used by the mainstream sports media in this way. Instead, metrics often get cherry-picked to fit their story. As a result, the public never gets the entire unbiased view that analytics provide.

For example, the media focused attention on the Miami Heat’s dismal shooting percentage in crunch time, concluding that they couldn’t excel in the clutch. They did shoot one for their first 18 when tied or trailing by three points or less in final 30 seconds. However, most teams have a low success rate in these situations (because defense is tight, referees hesitate to call fouls, etc.). And there are many more clutch situations during games. A balanced analysis would have taken these shots into account as well.

Most importantly, all statistics need a sufficiently large sample before we can reach any conclusions. The Heat had taken just 18 shots which met the specific criteria used. That’s far too few to say that they were poor clutch shooters.

The same thing applies for the hitter who has gone 0-for-10 lifetime versus a certain pitcher. Should the manager decide that he can’t handle the pitcher? Of course not! It would take a sample of at least 50 plate appearances before knowing that for certain.

Presenting a player’s complete statistical profile requires looking at numerous metrics over a significant sample of games. That’s why it’s vital for agents to examine every piece of relevant statistical data possible.

In baseball, all encompassing categories like WAR make valuing players easier. But that is just the start. As explained last year in The Sports Resource Newsletter, role players can have greater impact in select circumstances. Sustained success in high leverage situations also adds to player value.

Yes, analytics tell a great story. But it requires thorough analysis to present the data in a way that builds maximum value for your players.

Summary of the MIT Sports Analytics Conference

Here’s a wrap-up of the MIT Sports Analytics Conference held earlier this month, with the focus on items of interest to sports agents.

This year’s conference drew 1,500 people to the Boston Convention and Exhibition Center. Representatives from 53 different professional teams attended, according to the organizers. Now in its fifth year, the event has evolved into as much a business conference as an analytics one, with topics about sponsorships and enhancing the game day experience.

Rockets GM Daryl Morey, one of the event’s organizers, pointed out that basketball is a sport that punishes mistakes during the opening panel on developing the modern athlete. He explained how people focus on all the dunks, but mistakes are costly and need to be minimized for success. While players that shoot high percentages and avoid turnovers get little media attention, teams clearly build such contributions into their statistical models and projections.

In the same panel, Morey said that during the NBA Draft process they’re often looking for flaws more than attributes. They identify what problems a player has that they think they can improve upon. This shows why it may be a good idea to address a player’s shortcomings in draft packages and then demonstrate how they will overcome them.

The Baseball Analytics panel also had some interesting exchanges. Tom Tippett, director of baseball information services for the Red Sox, talked about the Carl Crawford contract. Although he lacked the power of most well-paid outfielders, Tippett said that between triples and home runs, Crawford clears the bases about 30 times per year. Tippett said the team also researched how Fenway Park’s dimensions would impact Crawford’s defensive performance.

Both Major League Baseball and the NBA are moving toward having a complete digital record of each game. This creates tremendous opportunities for sports agents and their staffs to analyze and present this data on behalf of their clients.

MIT Sports Analytics Conference

Here’s a brief recap on last weekend’s MIT Sports Analytics Conference. The conference doubled in size from last year, and again delivered invaluable information for sports agents. This post only covers highlights on basketball topics.

One of the most interesting exchanges dealt with how NBA teams value clutch performance. Rockets GM Daryl Morey said he likes when players have shown strong clutch performance in the past, but he wouldn’t spend millions on a player based on that. Mark Cuban countered by saying he would pay for it, and cited Jason Kidd as one example.

Morey later explained that their research revealed how well Kevin Martin had performed against tough opposing defenses before trading for him at the deadline. Agents may want to emphasize this point for their free agents who excel in this area.

Cuban believes certain NBA teams have an advantage in analytics. Why does he think that? For one, he examines the combinations that some teams place on the court. By comparing that to data that the Mavericks research, he knows which clubs are informed and not, as some of these lineups have poor track records.

Morey also said the Rockets thoroughly research how well a player will perform in their system versus with their current team before acquiring them.

Agents can feel free to contact me for a more detailed rundown on the conference.

10 Hot Topics from the MIT Sports Analytics Conference

For the second consecutive year, I attended the MIT Sports Analytics Conference on March 7. The event drew a large crowd of sports insiders, researchers, media and students. Among all the great information coming from the speakers and panelists, these were my top 10 highlights:

1. Dean Oliver of the Denver Nuggets, a member of the Basketball Analytics panel, pointed out that the NBA teams actively involved in analytics are now residing in the upper part of the standings.

2. Mike Zarren, the Celtics Assistant Executive Director of Basketball Operations, believes that the ability to communicate what numbers mean is as important as the statistics themselves.

3. Rockets GM Daryl Morey explained trading the #8 pick of the 2006 draft (which became Rudy Gay) for Shane Battier, drawing a parallel from the financial world. “You have to take risks. In a game where one of 30 teams wins [a championship], you can’t just try to beat the market index.”

4. Mark Cuban stated that chemistry is important for all businesses. In this respect, other businesses aren’t all that different from basketball.

5. Cuban estimates that one win is worth a half million dollars in revenue. He added that the most profitable type of club is one in rebuilding mode, with low salaries and a low win total.

6. Most fans, media and sports insiders feel strongly that players who hit a shot are more likely to connect the next time they shoot. How often during March Madness did announcers state that a premier shooter could start to go off after nailing a three-pointer? But John Huizinga, a college professor as well as Yao Ming’s agent, presented compelling evidence against such a theory. He showed that players are more likely to miss their next shot after sinking one.

7. The Baseball Analytics panel talked about how new metrics for evaluating fielding have made an impact on the game. John Dewan of Baseball Info Solutions pointed out that the difference between baseball’s best defensive team in 2008 (the Phillies) and the worst (the Royals) amounted to 130 runs. The offensive gap between the top run-scoring club (Texas) and the lowest (San Diego) was 260 runs. David Pinto followed that by explaining how defense turned the fortunes of the Devil Rays pitching staff in one year.

8. Shiraz Rehman, the Diamondbacks’ Director of Baseball Operations, spoke about the approach to valuing players. “The understanding of replacement value is becoming more apparent. What do we have to spend to get x value over replacement level?”

9. Speaking as a panelist on the “Value of Icon Players,” Celtics star Ray Allen fielded a question about individuals and team performance. He believes basketball players have to be a little cocky and crazy. He said that “if you do it the right way, individualism will make the team better.” He added that “having a great teammate is the best thing in sports.”

10. Despite the economic downturn, Tim Romani of ICON Venue Group sees stadium naming rights as a great way to activate a brand. He sighted the 02 Arena in London as a great example of what’s possible.