Adjusting for Context and Arbitration

One of the keys to solving the value puzzle in sports is separating what the player controls and what he doesn’t. Sounds simple, but it’s not.

In baseball arbitration, context can be a huge factor. In extreme examples – such as pitcher who plays home games in Coors Field – the arbitration process makes the proper adjustments to salaries. But there are many others where it doesn’t. For example, factors like run support, defensive play, and bullpen performance all have a massive impact on starting pitcher statistics.

Relievers also face challenges when it comes to context. Holds and saves greatly influence arbitration salaries, and they get impacted by the man calling the shots. Managers vary tremendously in how they handle relievers, and this can be good or bad for pitching stats. Here are just a few examples:

Pitching Changes: Some managers change pitchers far more often than others. Giants Manager Bruce Bochy used 524 relievers in 2013 versus 440 for Washington’s Davey Johnson. The frequency of Bochy’s changes created more opportunities for holds. Giants relievers had 46 holds of less than one inning. The Nationals had just 15.

Free Passes: Seattle’s Eric Wedge ordered 48 intentional walks last season, compared to 10 by John Farrell and the Red Sox. This hits the statistics of relievers especially hard, since they pitch far fewer inning than starters. Intentional walks cause stats like walks per nine innings and WHIP to rise, even though the pitcher did nothing to cause it. Because intentional walks are usually poor strategic moves, they can also increase a reliever’s ERA.

Wearing Them Down: Overuse can also make relief pitchers less effective. The Red Sox and Indians had similar ERA figures – both for their starting rotation and bullpen – yet Terry Francona worked his pen much harder. Cleveland relievers pitched on consecutive days 122 times. Farrell, on the other hand, used Red Sox pitchers only 71 times without a day of rest.

Every player’s situation is different. And The Sports Resource identifies how context impacts all the stats that matter in arbitration.

Aircraft Carriers, Adjustments and Arbitration

Last Sunday, Syracuse faced San Diego State aboard the USS Midway in San Diego Harbor. The wind made shots beyond a few feet an adventure. One baseline jumper by Syracuse forward C.J. Fair seemed to blow two feet off course and wound up an air ball.

The shooting percentages were low for both sides, but especially dismal for the Aztecs. They made just one three-pointer in 18 attempts and shot 27 percent overall. At the foul line, they sank 42.4 percent. Broadcasters Dick Enberg and Steve Kerr commented frequently about the conditions, at one time saying the players probably wish these stats wouldn’t count in their season numbers.

While the statistics need to count, we can make adjustments for the context. Other teams have played on ships. Using those averages to adjust actual statistics provide a better indication of how well the teams and players performed. Of course, it’s only one game and won’t impact final season numbers very much.

Baseball players on teams with extreme venues like Safeco Field and Coors Field aren’t so lucky. They play 81 games in settings that have a huge impact on their statistics. While the Aztecs and Orange escaped the aircraft carrier after one game, Mariners hitters and Rockies pitchers have no such opportunity. The altitude never changes in Denver, and neither does its effect on statistics.

Fortunately, in baseball arbitration and free agency, we can make adjustments for context, but it’s not always simple. Just as the outside shooters struggled more than big men aboard the ship, ballparks affect different players in different ways. Left-handed power hitters in Minute Maid Park make a great example. Since the stadium debuted in 2000, there have been 28 20-home run seasons by Astros’ right-handed batters, just one by a lefty hitter.

Extreme environments call attention to the need for adjustments. However, we need them for less obvious conditions as well, not just for basketball games aboard aircraft carriers.

The Common Factor

Besides playing for the Oklahoma City Thunder, Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden don’t seem to have much in common. And that was the case when the Sonics/Thunder selected them in three consecutive drafts, except for one key factor.

All three players were exceptionally young for their class. At 18.74 years old on draft night, Durant was the youngest freshmen (and player) taken in the past five drafts combined. One year later, they landed the youngest sophomore from these five draft classes. Westbrook, at 19.62 years old, was actually younger than many freshmen in the 2008 draft. Then they took Harden in 2009. Only one other sophomore besides Westbrook was younger than Harden at 19.83.

As a result, the Thunder nabbed three players with far more college playing experience than prospects their same age. The Sports Resource Newsletter covered this topic last year. Westbrook, for example, had played 75 games for UCLA. Most of the draft selections close to his age had fewer than half that many.

Obviously, it wasn’t just about their age relative to their class. Durant and Harden also put up outstanding statistics, but so had many others in their draft class. Their numbers were made far more impressive by the fact that they were over one year younger (in some cases) than players that shared the same college class.

Maybe other teams valued this common factor, but went another direction on draft night. Perhaps it’s just a coincidence that Oklahoma City exploited this edge three straight years. Whatever happened, the Thunder may soon start the next NBA dynasty because of those selections.

Will This Be Your Breakout Year?

There are many articles out there about finding a job in sports. Almost every sports conference has a panel devoted to this topic. Most of the advice is sound, since it often comes from insiders holding influential positions.

The focus is always on “breaking into sports,” which has become very difficult due to the huge number of people attempting it. There is an alternate approach. I describe it as “breaking out”, like a hitter having a breakout season.

The world has changed. Back in the 1990’s, you had to build and polish a resume with all the right background, send it off to the decision makers, and then hope for the best. Now, technology enables sports outsiders to become insiders without actually breaking in. The barrier is still there, but the right skills and knowledge can streamline the process.

The key step is to put your work out there for all to see. Whether through a website, blog, app or videos, you can gain exposure in sports far easier than ever before. When I wrote The Baseball Perspective in the early 1990’s, it required a graphic designer, print shop and the U.S. Postal Service for a 12-page newsletter to reach 1,000 or so subscribers and prospects. The same process would take far less time and cost almost nothing today!

While your passion and skills should determine what you put out there, I recommend avoiding the edgy sports opinion blogs that are everywhere. Specialize as much as possible. Great examples exist all over the internet. HitTracker is an amazing website that tracks the flight and distance of every Major League home run. Darren Heitner’s Sports Agent Blog is a tremendous resource for insiders, as is Cots Contracts. How about starting a website analyzing NFL coaching decisions? Or how weather conditions impact game outcomes and/or statistics? Everybody wins – you gain exposure and the industry gets another resource.

Internships are great for making contacts and gaining experience. However, your work may not reach the masses or have your name attached to it. With our approach, there’s no limitation on who sees it, especially if you have no problem presenting at conferences and seminars.

Although easier than breaking in, breaking out in sports presents its own challenges. I’m sure the people who run the websites mentioned above had to work long and hard. But fortunately, talented individuals with something valuable to offer now have far more control over their own future in sports. Isn’t that the way it should be?

Sports Statistics as a Marketing Tool

Politicians discovered the power of numbers long ago. One might say “my administration created one million more jobs than any other in history.” Of course, it only takes a few minutes to pick that apart: How many jobs were lost? What was the net increase? What was the percentage increase? What was the average salary of these created jobs? But by the time his statement gets scrutinized, the politician moves on to the next talking point.

The same thing works in sports. In 2009, when Colt McCoy was a top Heisman Trophy candidate, the media repeated this statement over and over: “McCoy has won more games than any quarterback in college football history.” Wins are powerful, the true currency of sports. The stat spread everywhere and stuck in people’s minds, even though it was not a particular good statistic.

McCoy won more football games partly because he played in so many. Longer seasons and conference title games gave him more opportunity to record victories. Yes, he won the most games of any quarterback, but he was one of 22 starters. And many of those former teammates have joined him in the NFL.

Obviously it took a great quarterback to win that many football games. McCoy had to earn the starting job and keep it four years; no easy feat at a top program. He had a major role in 45 wins. Nonetheless, teams win games, not quarterbacks.

The McCoy stat still got extensive airtime on sports talk radio, highlight shows and game broadcasts. As with a smooth-talking politician, there was little opportunity in those settings to contradict it with objective evidence.

This demonstrates the power of numbers. Since few people effectively use sports statistics as a marketing tool, they present a blank canvas to work with. And the timing couldn’t be better with the rise of social media, when you may only get 140 characters to send a clear powerful message.

If even bad stats have value, can you imagine the impact from innovative statistical content? Finding this isn’t easy – as the best information lies beyond the core stats that dominate the mainstream sports media – but it is well worth the effort.

Summary of the MIT Sports Analytics Conference

Here’s a wrap-up of the MIT Sports Analytics Conference held earlier this month, with the focus on items of interest to sports agents.

This year’s conference drew 1,500 people to the Boston Convention and Exhibition Center. Representatives from 53 different professional teams attended, according to the organizers. Now in its fifth year, the event has evolved into as much a business conference as an analytics one, with topics about sponsorships and enhancing the game day experience.

Rockets GM Daryl Morey, one of the event’s organizers, pointed out that basketball is a sport that punishes mistakes during the opening panel on developing the modern athlete. He explained how people focus on all the dunks, but mistakes are costly and need to be minimized for success. While players that shoot high percentages and avoid turnovers get little media attention, teams clearly build such contributions into their statistical models and projections.

In the same panel, Morey said that during the NBA Draft process they’re often looking for flaws more than attributes. They identify what problems a player has that they think they can improve upon. This shows why it may be a good idea to address a player’s shortcomings in draft packages and then demonstrate how they will overcome them.

The Baseball Analytics panel also had some interesting exchanges. Tom Tippett, director of baseball information services for the Red Sox, talked about the Carl Crawford contract. Although he lacked the power of most well-paid outfielders, Tippett said that between triples and home runs, Crawford clears the bases about 30 times per year. Tippett said the team also researched how Fenway Park’s dimensions would impact Crawford’s defensive performance.

Both Major League Baseball and the NBA are moving toward having a complete digital record of each game. This creates tremendous opportunities for sports agents and their staffs to analyze and present this data on behalf of their clients.