The Best Defense for Arbitration

One of our recent posts detailed vital differences between baseball arbitration and free agency. Here’s another major one: an opposing party isn’t trying to discredit exhibits in your free agency packet. That is true in an arbitration hearing.

The Sports Resource strives to make agents arbitration briefs “rebuttal proof” by going on the offensive. One way to do this is make key points at least three different ways. This strengthens your arguments and defends them against the close scrutiny that always follows your presentation.

Even a powerful arbitration exhibit can get refuted when the club has its rebuttal time. Dismissing a point supported by multiple exhibits is much more difficult.

If one theme focuses on a position player’s clutch performance, we first demonstrate with core numbers. For example, we could show a strong slash line (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage) late in close ballgames. Another exhibit could detail all the player’s clutch achievements in the platform season: extra inning hits, game-winning RBI, etc.

Advanced metrics like win probability added – a great tool for this purpose – can drive home the point even further. Finally, we may include pertinent quotes from baseball insiders like teammates, coaches, or even front office members. This not only supports the numbers, but makes them come alive.

It’s never easy. The player may not have excelled in all these statistical categories, or he may have shined in some during the platform year but not his career timeframe. We find the right balance, avoiding anything that appears contrived, and build support for the main themes of the case.

Starting at the Top

The term “leadoff man” usually applies to the number one hitter in the lineup. However, all batters lead off innings. In fact, traditional leadoff men bat first in fewer than 20 percent of their team’s total innings.

When the leadoff batter for an inning reaches first base, his team’s run expectancy becomes .86 runs. If he makes an out, it drops to just .26. That’s a huge swing and teams face this situation nine times each game, 162 games per season.

While number one hitters get the most opportunities in this role, everybody in the lineup receives numerous chances over the course of the season. For example, Michael Bourn led off more innings (282) than any Braves batter by far. But that was just 19.6 percent of the team’s total innings. There were 327 Major League players who led off at least 50 innings in 2012. Most position players – including those currently arbitration eligible – impacted their teams in these situations.

So who stood out when leading off innings last season? None of the top five players in on-base percentage resemble prototypical leadoff men, but all shined in this role: Joey Votto (.457 OBP), Travis Hafner (.456), Miguel Cabrera (.456), David Ortiz (.441), and Joe Mauer (.439).

This data also enables us to measure how number one hitters perform in these situations, when getting on base is much more valuable than with one or two outs. The arbitration-eligible Austin Jackson had a .409 on-base percentage when leading off an inning versus .355 in all other plate appearances. So when he could make the greatest impact by reaching base, Jackson excelled.

We can dig deeper in this analysis as well. Reaching second base to start innings carries major value – a 1.07 run expectancy. A slugger topped this group as well. Giancarlo Stanton got to second base (or further) 28 times in 121 inning leadoff plate appearances. His 23.1 percentage blew away everybody with at least 50 plate appearances in these spots. Oakland’s Brandon Moss topped all arbitration-eligible players. He made it to second in 16.4 percent of his leadoff plate appearances, seventh best overall in MLB.

This analysis results from one small shift in thinking. In arbitration and free agency, such approaches can really pay off.

Arbitration and Free Agency: A Key Distinction

Baseball arbitration and free agency differ tremendously in one respect: free agency is about what a player will achieve while arbitration focuses on what he has done.

Future projections – based on past performance – play a role in free agency. But projections aren’t included in the arbitration criteria. This distinction makes certain types of information and analysis, which clubs may not want to see in a free agent package, extremely important to an agent’s arbitration brief.

For example, skills like bunting and advancing runners with outs won’t fetch top dollar on the free agent market. But arbitration is a whole different ballgame. Exhibits detailing how a player excelled at “little things” – that resulted in wins – help make your brief a winner. Demonstrate how he performed better than comparable arbitration eligibles in these areas, and it strengthens your case even further.

Gregor Blanco didn’t post big numbers in core statistical categories, but he delivered in many other ways that impacted the Giants outstanding season.

1) Blanco did not hit into a double play in 453 plate appearances. This had only been done seven times since 1950.

2) He advanced a runner from second base with nobody out in seven of eight plate appearances in this situation.

3) He drove in a runner from third base with less than two outs 10 times in 18 opportunities. Six of these RBI came in the seventh inning or later, seven contributed to wins and three made up the margin of victory in one-run games.

4) Blanco topped 25 steals and had 5 triples in fewer than 400 at-bats. Only one other Giants player had done that since 1912.

5) He executed five successful sacrifice bunts. The Giants went 4-1 in these games.

All those feats are impressive enough, but they also contributed to a World Championship team. Looking back, for arbitration, that bottom line is all that matters.

Four Ways to Build Value for Arbitration

The arbitration season is a crazy time of year for baseball agents and The Sports Resource. So before it gets into full swing, here are strategies for making your briefs a winner.

Building a brief starts with telling a compelling story in the player profile section. That makes matching the player against key comparables easier and more convincing.

The approaches below work for both the player profile and comparables sections, and will make powerful points that complement a brief's core elements. 

History, All-time Greats, and Rarities. While their achievements may not find their way onto SportsCenter, players record historic achievements throughout the regular season. For example, Antonio Bastardo’s 14.0 strikeouts per nine innings rate this season has been matched by just two lefthanders in Major League history: Billy Wagner and Aroldis Chapman. We’re not saying Bastardo is as good as Wagner (obviously), but linking his name to an all-time great is huge. And such feats carry value even when they don’t involve common statistics. 

Marginal Value adds Major Value. Players on teams that narrowly reach the postseason – such as the Orioles and Cardinals this year – help their teams generate $25-to-$50 million of additional revenue. That’s according to research by Vince Gennaro, a consultant for Major League teams and author of the book “Diamond Dollars”. Reaching the playoffs also impacts club revenues for up to five seasons. Demonstrate how your player made that two or three-game difference for his club (and his key comparables didn’t), and you score a huge plus. 

Ballpark Figures. Park factors can be a tremendous weapon in arbitration. Hitters in Safeco Field, or any of the five California stadiums, are ideal for park adjustments. The same goes for pitchers in Coors Field, U.S. Cellular Field and Fenway Park. Our last newsletter addressed this topic for free agency. The concept works differently in arbitration – because the criteria does not allow for projections – but it’s a great tactic for evaluating past performance. 

Advanced Metrics. Clubs have used win expectancies and leverage index against relievers in recent hearings. So why not do the same? Even if they don’t help your case, it pays to prepare information for rebuttal. WAR is a powerful tool as well, but works better at some positions than others. Although their explanations consume some presentation time, advanced metrics complement core numbers extremely well.

Aircraft Carriers, Adjustments and Arbitration

Last Sunday, Syracuse faced San Diego State aboard the USS Midway in San Diego Harbor. The wind made shots beyond a few feet an adventure. One baseline jumper by Syracuse forward C.J. Fair seemed to blow two feet off course and wound up an air ball.

The shooting percentages were low for both sides, but especially dismal for the Aztecs. They made just one three-pointer in 18 attempts and shot 27 percent overall. At the foul line, they sank 42.4 percent. Broadcasters Dick Enberg and Steve Kerr commented frequently about the conditions, at one time saying the players probably wish these stats wouldn’t count in their season numbers.

While the statistics need to count, we can make adjustments for the context. Other teams have played on ships. Using those averages to adjust actual statistics provide a better indication of how well the teams and players performed. Of course, it’s only one game and won’t impact final season numbers very much.

Baseball players on teams with extreme venues like Safeco Field and Coors Field aren’t so lucky. They play 81 games in settings that have a huge impact on their statistics. While the Aztecs and Orange escaped the aircraft carrier after one game, Mariners hitters and Rockies pitchers have no such opportunity. The altitude never changes in Denver, and neither does its effect on statistics.

Fortunately, in baseball arbitration and free agency, we can make adjustments for context, but it’s not always simple. Just as the outside shooters struggled more than big men aboard the ship, ballparks affect different players in different ways. Left-handed power hitters in Minute Maid Park make a great example. Since the stadium debuted in 2000, there have been 28 20-home run seasons by Astros’ right-handed batters, just one by a lefty hitter.

Extreme environments call attention to the need for adjustments. However, we need them for less obvious conditions as well, not just for basketball games aboard aircraft carriers.

Simple and Informative

Save percentage is a useful statistic for closers, but not for other types of relievers. It has minimal value when evaluating setup men. Relievers that protect leads in the seventh and eighth innings rarely close games. Therefore, they have few chances to earn saves, but can still get blown saves.

That explains how an outstanding setup man like Mike Adams could have a 50 percent save percentage (two saves in four save opportunities). The stat fails to demonstrate his ability to maintain leads, which he had shown by accumulating 24 holds this season.

Save plus hold percentage evens the playing for closers and setup men, showing how well all relievers maintain leads. It is simple to calculate, yet gets little attention in the mainstream sports media. A hold is a save situation that gets preserved and passed on to the next reliever. So a hold is basically a save that does not end a game.

To calculate save plus hold percentage, combine saves and holds and then divide by saves, holds and blown saves. Among relievers with at least 15 save and hold opportunities through August 16, these pitchers led the Major Leagues.

The top 10 includes four closers, five setup men and one pitcher (Antonio Bastardo) who has filled both roles.

Adams’ 92.9 save plus hold percentage left him just short of the top 10. But he easily surpassed the Major League average of 84.9 percent this season.

Since it’s easy to explain and informative, save plus hold percentage makes a great tool for agents in both arbitration and free agency.

The Big Three for Pitchers

Limit walks, avoid home runs and strike batters out. If pitchers excel in those three areas over time, they will succeed. It is easier said than done.

All three areas are controlled primarily by the pitcher. He does not depend on his fielders for success in them, although home runs can get impacted by his home ballpark.

Sabermetric theory holds that pitchers have limited control over the batting average on balls put into play against them. On these plays, pitchers with a strong defense behind them have a huge edge over those that don’t. Pitchers who perform well in the big three can usually offset poor fielding. And when helped by a strong defense, they can dominate.

Our research shows that very few pitchers shine in all three of these vital areas. For both relievers and starters, we chose levels about 10 percent better than league averages. For relief pitchers, that was 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings and fewer than 3.0 walks and .75 home runs allowed per nine innings in at least 250 career innings pitched. Four active pitchers made the cut: Joakim Soria, Jonathan Papelbon, Mike Adams and Takashi Saito.

The criteria for starters proved even tougher: 500 innings pitched, 7.25 strikeouts per nine innings, and fewer than 2.5 walks and .8 home runs allowed per nine innings. Roy Oswalt stood alone at these levels. Two young starters – Daniel Hudson and Madison Bumgarner – join Oswalt if we drop the innings requirement to 250.

Incredibly, the groups expand by just one player apiece with non-active pitchers included. Reliever Tom Henke and starter Pedro Martinez join them.

Several elite pitchers miss these lists by falling just short in one category, such as Mariano Rivera, C.C. Sabathia and Felix Hernandez.

Prior to free agency and arbitration, we will update this research and vary the criteria to identify other pitchers who stand out in the big three. Why is this important for baseball agents? Because success in these areas makes pitchers more likely to sustain excellence when changing teams.

Beyond the Basics: Sports Analytics and Baseball Free Agency

Baseball free agency is an exciting time for players, agents and The Sports Resource. Analytics can highlight a player’s achievements, demonstrate and quantify his value, and show his contribution to the club. Unlike arbitration – a process restricted by specific criteria – free agency packages can also focus on what’s ahead with statistical projections.

Since free agency usually involves changing teams, this may add another level of complexity. But the insight gained from this research pays off both immediately and down the road, when it comes time for the next contract. Context impacts statistics far more than many realize, and joining a new club can dramatically change it.

These four key questions address areas where sports analytics can have a major impact beyond the basic components of a free agency package.

1. How will the level of competition affect your player? We elaborated on the AL East's impact on player statistics in the January 2010 issue of The Sports Resource Newsletter. Fortunately, methods exist to predict the impact of competition changes on individual players.

2. In which ballparks would he excel? Actual performance in different ballparks can be valuable. However, players may lack enough plate appearances to make those statistics meaningful.

Park factors give us an indication of how a player will perform when changing stadiums. Everybody knew that Adrian Gonzalez would benefit from leaving PETCO Park for Fenway Park. But it isn’t always that easy. Park factors vary from year to year largely due to weather patterns. Complicating matters further, many stadiums help certain types of hitters more than others. For example, Minute Maid Park is great for right-handed pull hitters with power, but not nearly as great for lefty home run hitters.

3. What impact will a new lineup have? Hitting in a strong batting order has a positive effect on context-dependent statistics like RBI and runs scored, as well as batting average to a lesser extent.

4. Are the potential new teams over or undervalued? Every player wants to win, so this last question is vital. Team records can prove misleading. So it’s better to examine Pythagorean won-lost records, which project winning percentage based on runs scored and allowed. For example, the Astros went 76-86 in 2010 and finished strong. That made them look like a team poised to turn the corner. However, their Pythagorean record was just 68-94. This makes their poor 2011 performance less surprising.