Ghosts, Moonlight Graham, and the Fan Experience

During the movie Field of Dreams, Kevin Costner’s character Ray Kinsella sees Moonlight Graham’s statistics on the scoreboard while watching a game at Fenway Park. Kinsella soon realizes that a ghost is responsible for that information, and nobody else in the ballpark sees it besides him.

Now 24 years since the movie debuted, are we approaching the day when sports venues display personalized content on the video board?

While it’s currently impossible for each fan to view different content on the same scoreboard, personalized statistical content would benefit fans, clubs, and brands/sponsors. Why should I have to view meaningless items like “Pujols has gone 2-for-3 lifetime against pitcher A?” On the other hand, I’d like to see stats like win expectancy and left/right splits that have a major impact on the game.

Mobile apps provide one solution. However, do teams want thousands of fans looking down at their devices? Fortunately, there are other alternatives.

1)      Teams could dedicate one of their smaller video boards to advanced statistical content. A tech/data-related company would jump at the chance to sponsor this feature to build its brand. 

2)     Fans in luxury boxes could choose between content options like “old school stats”, “advanced metrics”, or “fun and games” on their video screens. All three could share the screen with the game’s live video feed. 

3)     One inning per game, clubs could show advanced statistical content on the big screen.

All three approaches offer great sports sponsorship activation opportunities. Best of all, they make the game far more interesting for the fan.

A Breakthrough for Role Players

For several years, The Sports Resource has recommended companies use non-superstar players for endorsements. Role players who excel in specific ways or possess unique traits can build brands at a much lower cost than superstars.

The news that Hawks guard Dahntay Jones signed a partnership deal last week demonstrates that companies are coming around to this concept. The 6-6 Jones sees just 12.4 minutes per game, but plays sensational defense.

With this approach in mind four years ago, we created a sample on Marreese Speights. What makes this a winning strategy for brands? 

1)      Many role players, such as Jones, have large audiences on social media. He had over 21,500 Twitter followers. This creates opportunities for brands to interact with thousands of fans through the player’s voice. 

2)      Every NBA player excels in at least one vital area, or else he wouldn’t be on a roster. For a defender like Jones, brands could use insightful defensive metrics to activate the sponsorship. 

3)      The cost to sign role players to deals is far less than what it takes to land a superstar.

We also believe companies should identify and sign promising young players for endorsements before they break out – a tactic where analytics provides a huge edge and can save millions of dollars.

Speights, now just 25, possessed considerable upside four years ago. And while he’s yet to see big-time minutes, he remains a very productive role player. Speights puts up 20 points and 10 rebounds per 40 minutes. Only 10 other players currently match that achievement, including stars like Blake Griffin and Tim Duncan.

Should this trend gain traction, players who build their brand on social media will get endorsement opportunities that only the superstars previously enjoyed. As for brands, we’ve already detailed why it pays to activate sponsorships with statistics. And that approach works great for all types of players.

Valuable Takeaways for Sports Agents from the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference

It’s fascinating to hear how analytics is shaping the sports industry. However, the key question we ask after the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference is: what can we do with all this great information? With that in mind, this post identifies actionable information that sports agents can use with minimal investment in both time and money.

First of all, I believe the conference gets misunderstand. It’s not only about the benefits of sports analytics and how teams can gain an edge. It features as much content on sports business and technology as statistics.

Here’s how one sports agent from the past could leverage today’s technology, if he actually existed. Back in 1996, Jerry Maguire had it rough. After SMI fired him, he faced a huge challenge competing with agents like Bob Sugar. Here are three problems he encountered, followed by solutions that didn’t exist 17 years ago.

On a shoestring budget, Jerry found it nearly impossible to generate a positive image for his client Rod Tidwell. Today, Maguire could easily build a website with dynamic content and blog posts that provide insight into the real Rod Tidwell. Jerry’s Twitter account (and Rod’s as well) would link to these updates and share details that never find their way into the mainstream sports media. Best of all, Jerry could automate his tweets with a tool like HootSuite. So he could enjoy a night out with Dorothy while his tweets reach thousands of followers and build Tidwell’s brand.

Maguire struggled to land quality endorsements opportunities for Tidwell. He even placed him in one ad that required sitting atop a camel in the desert. Today, Jerry could use exciting technology like BrandMatch Score, which enables companies to identify their best potential endorsers by measuring campaign specific data, athlete statistics, and consumer perceptions. Representatives from BrandMatch Score explained their tools could also be used by agents to find sponsorships for their clients. 

Unlike larger agencies like Sugar’s SMI, Maguire could not afford to hire experts in areas like sports medicine. Fortunately, tools like Dartfish make it possible for him to compare arm angles for his baseball clients and/or quarterbacks, using nothing but a Smartphone and $5 iPhone app. Future Hall of Famer John Smoltz studied his pitching motion with Dartfish, which helps analyze performance and avoid injuries.

Of course, large sports agencies can also gain an edge technology. The difference today is that all agents can take advantage of these and other amazing tools to even the playing field.

The Best Defense for Arbitration

One of our recent posts detailed vital differences between baseball arbitration and free agency. Here’s another major one: an opposing party isn’t trying to discredit exhibits in your free agency packet. That is true in an arbitration hearing.

The Sports Resource strives to make agents arbitration briefs “rebuttal proof” by going on the offensive. One way to do this is make key points at least three different ways. This strengthens your arguments and defends them against the close scrutiny that always follows your presentation.

Even a powerful arbitration exhibit can get refuted when the club has its rebuttal time. Dismissing a point supported by multiple exhibits is much more difficult.

If one theme focuses on a position player’s clutch performance, we first demonstrate with core numbers. For example, we could show a strong slash line (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage) late in close ballgames. Another exhibit could detail all the player’s clutch achievements in the platform season: extra inning hits, game-winning RBI, etc.

Advanced metrics like win probability added – a great tool for this purpose – can drive home the point even further. Finally, we may include pertinent quotes from baseball insiders like teammates, coaches, or even front office members. This not only supports the numbers, but makes them come alive.

It’s never easy. The player may not have excelled in all these statistical categories, or he may have shined in some during the platform year but not his career timeframe. We find the right balance, avoiding anything that appears contrived, and build support for the main themes of the case.

Starting at the Top

The term “leadoff man” usually applies to the number one hitter in the lineup. However, all batters lead off innings. In fact, traditional leadoff men bat first in fewer than 20 percent of their team’s total innings.

When the leadoff batter for an inning reaches first base, his team’s run expectancy becomes .86 runs. If he makes an out, it drops to just .26. That’s a huge swing and teams face this situation nine times each game, 162 games per season.

While number one hitters get the most opportunities in this role, everybody in the lineup receives numerous chances over the course of the season. For example, Michael Bourn led off more innings (282) than any Braves batter by far. But that was just 19.6 percent of the team’s total innings. There were 327 Major League players who led off at least 50 innings in 2012. Most position players – including those currently arbitration eligible – impacted their teams in these situations.

So who stood out when leading off innings last season? None of the top five players in on-base percentage resemble prototypical leadoff men, but all shined in this role: Joey Votto (.457 OBP), Travis Hafner (.456), Miguel Cabrera (.456), David Ortiz (.441), and Joe Mauer (.439).

This data also enables us to measure how number one hitters perform in these situations, when getting on base is much more valuable than with one or two outs. The arbitration-eligible Austin Jackson had a .409 on-base percentage when leading off an inning versus .355 in all other plate appearances. So when he could make the greatest impact by reaching base, Jackson excelled.

We can dig deeper in this analysis as well. Reaching second base to start innings carries major value – a 1.07 run expectancy. A slugger topped this group as well. Giancarlo Stanton got to second base (or further) 28 times in 121 inning leadoff plate appearances. His 23.1 percentage blew away everybody with at least 50 plate appearances in these spots. Oakland’s Brandon Moss topped all arbitration-eligible players. He made it to second in 16.4 percent of his leadoff plate appearances, seventh best overall in MLB.

This analysis results from one small shift in thinking. In arbitration and free agency, such approaches can really pay off.

Arbitration and Free Agency: A Key Distinction

Baseball arbitration and free agency differ tremendously in one respect: free agency is about what a player will achieve while arbitration focuses on what he has done.

Future projections – based on past performance – play a role in free agency. But projections aren’t included in the arbitration criteria. This distinction makes certain types of information and analysis, which clubs may not want to see in a free agent package, extremely important to an agent’s arbitration brief.

For example, skills like bunting and advancing runners with outs won’t fetch top dollar on the free agent market. But arbitration is a whole different ballgame. Exhibits detailing how a player excelled at “little things” – that resulted in wins – help make your brief a winner. Demonstrate how he performed better than comparable arbitration eligibles in these areas, and it strengthens your case even further.

Gregor Blanco didn’t post big numbers in core statistical categories, but he delivered in many other ways that impacted the Giants outstanding season.

1) Blanco did not hit into a double play in 453 plate appearances. This had only been done seven times since 1950.

2) He advanced a runner from second base with nobody out in seven of eight plate appearances in this situation.

3) He drove in a runner from third base with less than two outs 10 times in 18 opportunities. Six of these RBI came in the seventh inning or later, seven contributed to wins and three made up the margin of victory in one-run games.

4) Blanco topped 25 steals and had 5 triples in fewer than 400 at-bats. Only one other Giants player had done that since 1912.

5) He executed five successful sacrifice bunts. The Giants went 4-1 in these games.

All those feats are impressive enough, but they also contributed to a World Championship team. Looking back, for arbitration, that bottom line is all that matters.

Complete Halftime Analysis

Most halftime shows include comments from former players and coaches about how teams must “pick up the intensity” or “step up” in the second half. In basketball games, analysts talk about strategies like “getting the ball inside” or “taking better care of the basketball.”

While such input from former players and coaches is valuable, it is far from complete analysis. You need to get into the numbers for that to happen. Sports analytics provides powerful insight and doesn’t need to involve anything complex. The concept of regression to the mean reveals far more about what to expect in the second half, and only requires comparing a few key stats.

Let’s say one team shoots 8-for-10 from three-point range to grab a 10-point lead while the other clanks 1-for-9. If both teams entered the contest shooting 40 percent on the season, it is almost certain that both teams regress to the mean – the 40 percent mark – in the second half. Defense impacts these stats, but randomness (or luck) is a huge factor in small samples. As more shots get taken, teams should move toward their season percentage and cause the score to tighten up.

Free throw percentages are another great stat to examine at halftime. Unlike three-pointers, they aren’t defended. So randomness plays an even greater role.

I believe broadcasts will soon have a statistical expert offering such insight – alongside coaches and/or former players – on halftime shows. But until that happens, we can all do it ourselves.